To stem the Delta wave and the Omicron threat, the Scientific Council pleads for reinforcement of control measures, coupled with acceleration of reminders.
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How to deal with here at the end of the year, at this “double threat”: a fifth strong wave linked to the Variant Delta, whose peak does not seem reached, and the arrival of the Omicron variant, In the profile of worrying mutations? “A marked reinforcement of the control measures and an acceleration of reminder vaccination” are essential, alerts the scientific council in its new opinion, made public on Monday, December 13 – but transmitted five days earlier to the authorities.
“No drop in transmission rates compared to the current level, the coming weeks should be marked by an increase in hospital admissions”, writes the consultative body responsible for informing public decision. In a scenario where the transmission rates remain similar to those of November, and with an administration of 400,000 doses of recall per day since the December 1, the peak of hospitalizations could reach 2,350 admissions per day – a level close to that of the second wave. For an administration of 600 000 doses, this peak would be 2,100. And if it was possible to lower the transmission rates since 1 ER December, it could be restricted to 1 300 hospitalizations a day. “Even light reinforcement of barrier gestures, teleworking, as well as a reduction of contacts can have a very important health impact” on the current delta wave. This collective effort would reduce “the risk of having to implement more binding measures later”, continues the proceeding.
However, “an Omicron case explosion could strongly degrade the projections”, warns the Council. In fact, the first information on this variant suggest that it could “circulate in Europe faster than originally planned, gradually replacing the delta variant in the first few weeks of 2022”. The data “suggest that it spreads extremely quickly”, including in largely immunized populations as a result of natural infection or vaccination. This suggests “a very important immune exhaust capacity”.
Avoid “giant clusters”
In this regard, the Scientific Council quotes two impressive contagion homes. The first took place on November 26 in a restaurant of Oslo: 70 of the 120 people doubly vaccinated present at a Christmas meal were infected, as well as 50 others who were in the restaurant. The second cluster, it occurred in an evening between high school students in Denmark: 53 of the 150 participants were infected. “The Omicron variant is able to transmit themselves very effectively in vaccinated populations, on the occasion of events gathering in closed places of people who do not wear masks, and speaking, shouting or singing.”
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