Despite the fact that the Russian authorities regularly report on the growth of the economy, it still develops more slowly than it should, and real incomes of Russians fall stably since 2014, the economist said, analyst in Finam, Alexey Korenev. In a conversation with “Ribbon.ru,” he explained that the country is much lagging behind the pace of labor productivity from the rest of the world.
According to the previously published data from the Civil Society Research Center and the Commercial Sector of HSE, 70 percent of Russians complain about financial difficulties. At the same time, in 2020, 66 percent of citizens declared a complex material situation.
income drop and credit bubble
According to Korenev, there is nothing surprising in this: in Russian realities, the economy and prosperity of the population – different things.
“Revenues of Russians began to decline since 2014, as soon as the sanctions introduced, the economist reminded.” More precisely, two years was a nominal growth, but it was reached due to the fact that Rosstat retailed the technical recalculation. So you can tell how much pleases. that the economy is growing with us, but it still happens more slowly than it should: we are very far behind the pace of labor productivity, the growth of GDP, the rate of income of the population and households. Here you need to believe not the general reports on how good and fun living, but Real figures. And they say that the cost of food, housing and communal services, non-food goods grow much faster than the salaries of Russians. “
In many ways, the formal growth of the Russian economy Korenev explains by luck: it happened with a sharp jump in gas prices, oil, metals. But at the same time, according to him, a huge number of enterprises broke out, a small and medium-sized business was collided with a severe crisis.
“Well, of course, the most important thing is the productivity of labor. We are catastrophically behind the civilized world, as a result of which it turns out that the Russians work a lot, and the exhaust of their work is small. Here you need effective technologies, enterprises of deep processing, then It brings a greater income, and, accordingly, a salary will grow. Unfortunately, a political will need a political will to implement such a task, and in our case it is missing, “the economist noticed.
The permanent fall in revenues threatens and the prospect of collapses of the credit bubble. Korenev drew attention to the slaughter of the population, which is often forced to take new loans to close the previous ones.
“People took consumer loans without having a worthy wage. They scored mortgages according to the program of preferential lending, which no longer have the opportunity to serve. All this can end the credit bubble. Such a result. He has physical opportunities for this, we hope that the Central Bank knows what does, “- concluded Korenev.
In early November, the Ministry of Economic Development announced plans to revise data on income, costs and savings of the population for 2018-2020 to clarify sources of information.