According to the World Bank, in 2021, the volume of remittances of individuals to low- and middle-income countries will exceed the level to the pandemic. According to Kommersant, this can be considered a certificate of income of labor migrants, sending part of its earnings to their homeland.
The World Bank predicts that the transfers will increase by 7.3 percent relative to the crisis 2020, when the indicator fell by 1.7 percent. It is expected that the amount of translations in 2021 will be 589 billion dollars. According to the Central Bank, in the third quarter of 2021, transfers from Russia exceeded 10 percent for the same period of 2020. Such a speaker may be due to a low migranty in 2020 compared with previous years due to pandemic restrictions.
According to World Bank estimates, translations from the United States and Europe are growing as the economies are restored after the crisis. The increase in the volume of transfers is positively affected by the state stimulation of markets and employment support programs. In Russia, translations are restored due to the growing prices for oil, which caused revival in the economy.
Increasing the share of translations in global GDP is considered by the UN as one of the tasks to achieve the goals of sustainable development in the field of migration. Facilities sent to their homeland should maintain household costs on essential goods. Director of the Department of Global Practice on Social Protection and Employment World Bank Mikhal Rutkovsky believes that migrant remittances are significantly complemented by state programs to help families encountered with financial problems during the crisis due to a pandemic. Transfers from abroad are over 25 percent of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
In this case, translations from Russia are not growing due to the number of migrants, but by increasing their earnings. The number of migrants, according to Ranjigs and the Gaidar Institute, has decreased by several million people. In 2019, the country was from 9.6 million to 11.2 million migrants, at the end of 2020 – 7.1 million. Currently, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the number of foreign workers in the country is 5.5 million. The fall in the number of migrants led to a shortage of the labor market and wage growth. The amount of average translation from Russia increased from 261 dollars in the third quarter of 2020 to $ 277 in the third quarter of 2021.
Earlier in November, Russian companies complained about the deficit of workers. A number of enterprises had to increase salaries to attract new employees and close free vacancies, as well as spend on a technique that can perform part of the tasks in the conditions of lack of personnel. A record low unemployment with a large number of open vacancies noted the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. According to her forecasts, salaries in the country will continue to increase, as employers have to compete for employees.