Scientists at Stanford University have found that global warming has made extreme drought “Judgment Day”, like the one that occurred in South Africa in 2018, are 5-6 times more likely. How to warn the researchers in an article published in the journal Climatic Change, in regions with arid weather events that threaten water resources, will be much more.
Because of the catastrophic drought in 2018 and the depletion of the reservoirs of Cape Town residents were forced to move to save water consumption to delay the so-called “Day Zero” when the city will no longer have access to drinking water. For the forecast of such events in the future, scientists have modeled the changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation in the XXI century in Africa.
In a scenario in which the country does not take any effort to achieve the target of containment of climate change, there is a 50 percent chance that in the middle of the century in the western, central and southern Africa, the temperature will be three times higher compared to the current range of variability. The risk reduction in rainfall is 3-4 times higher than the risk of spontaneous precipitation increase.
Upon reaching the targets of the Paris agreement on curbing the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial to 2100 risks for South Africa will be delayed by 30 years, which will give the country an opportunity to prepare for droughts. Otherwise, it will be necessary to take emergency measures to conserve water use, to prevent the onset of the “Days of Zero”, which will occur more and more often.