Despite some increases in manufactured goods, the Bank of France believes that inflation, currently at 2.1%, should “return below the 2% mark before the end of 2022”.
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More than one in two industrial enterprises has begun to pass on, in its selling prices, the rise in raw materials, including energy, indicates the monthly survey of the Banque de France, published on Monday 8 November. And then, while growth looks stronger than expected. The financial institution estimates that the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed, this year, the forecast of 6.3% and could reach 6.75%, according to an arithmetic calculation. The fourth quarter, indeed, promises to be better than expected, up 0.75 points in relation to the third quarter, despite the difficulties of supply and recruitment that still face many industrialists, especially in the automobile and, to a lesser extent, aeronautics.
“The return of the activity at the precurify level is earlier than what we had anticipated, points out Olivier Garnier, Chief Economist at the Banque de France. It was felt that it would occur at the end of 2021, it occurs a quarter earlier “. It is the activity in the service sector, particularly the restoration, which derives growth, while the industry still suffers from the shortages of raw materials and supply difficulties. If they fade a little in the building in October (58% of companies say they are concerned, compared to 62% in September), they remain very strong in the industry, where they affect, as in September, 56% of companies .
In addition, business leaders are starting to pass through their sales prices the rise in commodity prices or energy rates they undergo. In the industry and the building, nearly 35% of the entrepreneurs said, during the investigation between October 27 and November 4, having increased their selling prices to deal with the rise in the price of Products and input materials. In addition, the share of business leaders reporting an increase in tariffs is “almost systematically” greater than it was a month earlier, which signals “surprises on the rise”.
Recruitment difficulties in recoil
However, this trend does not seem to feed, in the short term, rising consumer prices, says Garnier. For several reasons. On the one hand, because the manufacturers do not completely pass the increases, but still absorb the additional costs in their margins. On the other hand, because “industry prices weigh only for a small part in household consumption basket, which is mostly composed of services,” says Garnier.
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