Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Ranjigs Nikolai Kulbak called the forecast of the head of Sberbank Herman Gref about the world stagnation is quite real. According to the economist, which he gave in a conversation “Tape.ru”, by the end of 2022 all serious inflationary jumps slow down.
Earlier in an interview with RIA Novosti Herman Gref reported that the risk of stagflation, that is, situations where the economic decline or stagnation is accompanied by the rise in prices, it is small in the world. The main reason for accelerating inflation bankers called the outpacing waiting for the global economy restoration. Around June 2022, the international market adapts to new conditions, assured Gref. In his opinion, as a result, the dynamics of prices is normalized.
Banker called the reasons for the current inflation currently. Among other things, the head of Sberbank noted a violation of technological chains due to a pandemic, sharply increased demand for chips, as well as complex climatic conditions and the total increase in energy prices that contribute to increased prices for agricultural products.
Forecast true
The economy of different countries and regions unevenly comes out of the crisis, said Kulbak. This lies the reason for inflation jumps. “Here, with Herman Oscarovich [Gref], I absolutely agree. When the economy begins to go out of the crisis, it is usually accompanied by a higher inflation, because the demand for goods and services begins to grow. This process should be in a good way to end somewhere in The middle of the year, if the economy comes out of the crisis, “said Associate Professor of Economic Sciences.
He noted that Gref was true about the experiences of the global economy. “He is absolutely right. Now to worry about inflation, in particular, world inflation, it is not particularly necessary. That is, talking about the version of the script, when stagflation occurs in our world, that is, when we occur in stagnation and inflation at the same time, this is not necessary It will not be. Inflation will gradually calm down, especially since in most countries the central banks lead quite competent monetary policy, “the Kulbak explained.
In view of what is happening today, it can be assumed that by the end of 2022 all serious inflationary jumps will slow down, it added. Not everywhere with the same pace and not in all markets immediately, I noticed the economist, but a reduction in voltage in the global economy can be expected already since the middle of next year.
Previously, German Gref estimated the risk of starting a new global crisis. According to him, this in a number of countries may tighten the monetary policy by leading financial regulators, but still remains unclear how the systemic risk is