China and India’s emissions should exceed pre-Covid values, due to increased coal use. Conversely, those of the European Union and the United States are expected to fall compared to 2019.
by
The Pandemic of Covid-19 will have only a minimal effect, not to say no, in the fight against climate change. Global carbon dioxide emissions (co 2 ) dropped by 5.4% in 2020, due to confines and stopping part of the economy – the most important since the Second World War. But they should rebound this year (+ 4.9%) to get closer to their levels before the health crisis. This is reflected in the annual balance sheet of the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of a hundred scientists from 70 international laboratories working on the carbon cycle, the results of which are disclosed Thursday, November 4. It is a new warning for the 196 countries gathered at e United Nations Conference on Climate, Glasgow.
“The world does not take the path of a reduction in emissions. But the more we expect, and the more their decline will have to be fast and drastic to achieve carbon neutrality and stabilize the warming”, warns Philippe Ciis, director of Research at the Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment and one of the authors of the study. Especially since, according to the researchers, an increase in emissions in 2022 can not be excluded if road transport and aviation come back to the pandemic levels and if the use of coal remains stable.
This study, which must be published shortly in the Earth System Science Data journal , concludes that CO emissions 2 linked to the combustion of fossil energies as well as industry and cement plants should reach 36.4 billions of tonnes in 2021, compared with 34.8 billion in 2020. By adding emissions related to deforestation and other changes in soil allocation (destruction of grasslands …) – whose estimates are more uncertain -, the total balance sheet s ‘is high to 39 billion tons of co 2 in 2020, an increase of 40% since 1990.
“Insufficient investments”
In question in the fort rebound: an increase in energy consumption, driven by fossils. Coal, the first source of CO 2 , is experiencing strong progression (+ 6%), as well as gas, both should exceed their 2019 levels. Only oil consumption, which is ‘Also increases, should remain lower this year at pre-Covid levels. “Renewable energies still represent a small fraction of global energy production, notes Philip Iiis. They have held during the health crisis but their relative share declined a little in 2021. The fight that is played between fossil fuels and energies low carbon will be crucial for the future of emissions. “
You have 56.26% of this article to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.