The new fights intervene while the humanitarian situation in Tiger has aggravated.
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Movements of troops, artillery fire, aerial strikes … The great military maneuvers took place in the north of Ethiopia, while the rainy season barely ends. Since Saturday, October 9, a renewed activity has been found in the Afar, Amhara and Tiger regions, three provinces in the center of the war that the federal government and the rebels of the Tygrennes Defense Forces (TDF), structured, structured Around the former party of the popular Tiger Liberation Front (FPLT) for a year. If the authorities, in Addis Ababa, have not confirmed new magnitude offensive, it seems well to work with an important deployment of Army soldiers and Militia Amahara Allies.
In November 2020, the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, had sent the army to overthrow the regional authorities from the FPLT. After several months of stagnation, the conflict had had a new turning point at the end of June when the rebels took over almost all the Tiger. The fighting then won the neighboring Afar and Amhara neighboring regions. The rebels took part in several parcels of territory and a handful of strategic cities in the northern Region Amhara.
The current government offensive against the positions of the Tigerian rebels first started in the AIRs in the region Amhara. A spokesman for TDF ensures that their positions have been pounded by artillery dams, aerial strikes, as well as by drone fire on October 8 and 9. Then, Monday, important troop movements have been reported in the Amhara and Afar regions, reminiscent of a coordinated operation on several fronts, with fighting, especially near the cities of Weldiya, Chifra, Abala and Gashena. “Abiy Ahmed’s offensive to invade the Tigger again officially started,” says a FPLT release.
Ceasefire request
The silence of the federal government does not allow to have a precise idea of the progression of the fighting. Some FPLT leaders talk about an immediate counter-attack of their strength. In this war that drags and has already made thousands of deaths, the resumption of hostilities is fearing the worst, especially because of the intensive use of militia by each party and the generalization of hate speeches. “To the extent that the current fighting are mainly confrontations between infantries, we can expect a very heavy”, commented William Davison, Analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
In the last three months, both camps have devoted themselves to grouping their strengths and recruiting new fighters. A Western diplomat thus evaluates the number of young people who have joined the Ethiopian federal army as a result of the call for general mobilization launched by the Eprmeier Minister in August. “Joint recruitments at the federal, regional and local levels make it a credible figure, believes Mr. Davison. Some sources advance figures going beyond 100,000. But the true question is that of the military effectiveness of these new recruits . “
The other concern concerns the humanitarian situation that has largely aggravated in northern Ethiopia. The Tiger is practically cut from the world and deprived of gasoline, cash and electricity for three months. At least 400,000 people have “crossed the threshold of famine”, according to the latest United Nations estimates. “With the recovery of the fighting, it seems unlikely that the federal government restores the essential services to Tiger and authorizes unhindered humanitarian access, which will aggravate the extreme conditions known by the province”, warns the analyst of the ‘ICG.
Observing the resumption of hostilities, France, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom have once again claimed negotiations and a ceasefire. Requests that the two parties continue to ignore. In an umpteenth attempt to raise the tone, Washington brandishes the threat of sanctions. A spokesman for the US State Department ensures that the Biden administration “considers the whole pallet of tools at its disposal”. Among these include “the targeted economic sanctions to hold those who are guilty, or accomplices, to prolong the conflict, to hinder humanitarian access, to prevent a ceasefire”. A threat that has never been implemented until then.