The new wave of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde” shows that the far-right polemist enjoys a securely stuggled electorate. But Marine Le Pen resistance is a brake on its ambitions.
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Eric Zemmour, even before he declared his candidacy for the presidential election, realizes an unprecedented breakthrough by its speed and by its magnitude: obtaining according to the hypotheses between 16% and 16.5% of the voting intentions, It is in a position to qualify for the second round. Thanks to the size of the sample and the diversity of questions, the analysis of the more than 1,400 Eric Zemmour voters makes it possible to better understand the phenomenon … and its limits.
First characteristic, the electorate of Eric Zemmour is ideologically very marked. His constituents position themselves at 65% as “radical” or “very radical” against 31% of the respondents. They are for the main concerns that immigration (75%) and delinquency (51%) – respectively 46 points and 24 points above average. Conversely, they do not give much importance to the environment (12%) or social inequalities (7%). They estimate 96% that Islam is a threat to the Republic and 98% that France should be closed on the migratory level. They are worried (21%), revolted (10%) or angry (9%) – these feelings are a total of 17 points above the average of the respondents.
Second characteristic, part of his electorate is firmly stowed. Thanks to the Ipsos panel, one can determine what its voters said they would vote in April: nine of its 16 points of voting intentions come from voters of Marine Le Pen (national gathering), two of Xavier Bertrand (candidate for the investiture of the Republicans party), one of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (standing France), one of Emmanuel Macron and two, finally, voters who did not intend to vote or did not express intention to vote. A party can withdraw again but the phenomenon exceeds the “media bubble”. 57% of its voters believe that it will be qualified for the second round and elected. 83% of them feel that he has the fabric of a President of the Republic.
Third feature, Eric Zemmour’s electorate is sociologically quite balanced – and it’s a force if we compare it to Marine Le Pen or Xavier Bertrand. It also realizes relatively close scores regardless of the age of voters, 13% in children under 35 at 17% in over 60 years, this four-point gap between younger and older people being 13 points for Xavier Bertrand. It carries out relatively close scores between the main occupations, 14% among CSP + at 16% in CSPs – this difference of two points at 18 points for Marine Le Pen.
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