While the previous wave of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Monde, in April, showed a political world dominated by the expected duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the possible Application of Eric Zemmour Rebat cards.
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At six months of the first round of the presidential election of 2022, the political landscape has never been so fragmented. This is the main teaching of the second wave of the Electoral Survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the French Politics Center of Sciences Po (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde. The strength of this panel is its amplitude since the sample used is 16,228 people. The voting intentions are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote” (between 8,541 and 888, according to the different assumptions studied). Result: The margins of error are very low, including 0.2 and 0.9 point.
While the previous wave, in April, showed a political world dominated by the expected duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, six months later, everything changed. Admittedly, the outgoing president still seems so firmly stowed with about a quarter of the vote, regardless of the scenario (according to the right candidate who will be appointed in December and the candidacy or not of Eric Zemmour). But the dynamic around the former Figaro journalist – who is still not officially in the race at the Elysee – Rebat cards. First at the extreme right since Mr. Zemmour is equal with Marine Le Pen (both around 16% of the voting intentions) but also for all oppositions. Indeed, the division of the nationalist camp around two candidates has a mechanical effect: lowering the level of the “entry ticket to the second round”. While in April, it was about 25%, it is now around 16%. The game is open like never and each outsiders hopes to take advantage of it to draw their game pin, the right to the first chef.
Xavier Bertrand Favorite at the LR
In the opposition for ten years, the Republican Party (LR) must designate, at a congress on 4 December, the one who will represent it. The investigation tested the three main investment contenders, Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier. Between these three personalities, it is the president of the Hauts de France who could hope to obtain a qualifying place: it would collect between 12.3% and 13.7%, taking into account the margin of error. Mr. Bertrand Distance His competitors as Valérie Pécresse would get between 9.4% and 10.6% and Michel Barnier, between 8.4% and 9.6%. In the event – more and more unlikely – a non-candidature of Eric Zemmour, the voices on one of these three candidates would range from 11.3% to 16.8% of the votes. But in these scenarios, the qualification would remain largely out of reach since Marine Le Pen would obtain between 23.1% and 25.9% of the vote, arriving behind Emmanuel Macron (between 25.1% and 29%, according to which right candidate is designated).
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