At the rate to increase greenhouse gas emissions, the World Meteorological Organization predicts a “warming [temperatures] about 4 degrees from here at the end of the century”.
Le Monde with AFP
Six days before the opening of COP26, Glasgow, the United Nations (UN) issued, Monday, October 25, a new alarming newsletter: greenhouse gas concentrations still reached records In 2020, and the Amazon loses its ability to absorb the 2 .
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), about half of the carbon dioxide (co 2 ) emitted by human activities today remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems, but the WMO fears that these CO 2 wells are reduced as a result of deforestation and warming water, and their acidification. Especially part of the Amazon “is no longer a well, but a carbon source,” says the newsletter. “It’s alarming and it’s related to deforestation in the region,” the Secretary-General of WMO, Petteri Taalas added.
The three main greenhouse gases – co 2 , methane (CH 4 ) and nitrogen oxide (n 2 o -, have reached peaks in 2020. The annual increase in concentrations of each of these gases even exceeded the average of the period 2011-2020. The slowdown in the economy imposed by the Pandemic of Covid-19 “did not have a perceptible impact on the level and progression of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, despite a temporary decline in new emissions, explains the organization again.
warming “about 4 degrees from here at the end of the century”
“At the rate when the greenhouse gas concentrations increase, the elevation of temperatures at the end of the century will be much greater than the objectives of the Paris Agreement, ie 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above Preindustrial levels. We are very far from the goal, “warned the Secretary General of WMO. “If we continue to use fossil resources unlimited, we could achieve a warming about 4 degrees by the end of the century,” he warned.
UN hopes that global leaders will take to Glasgow steps to keep the planet on a bearable warming trajectory in the coming years, while the data show that CO levels 2 have continued to increase in 2021. This greenhouse gas, which comes mainly from the combustion of fossil materials and cement production, is by far the principal responsible for this global warming.
Last year, its concentration was 413.2 ppm (parts per million), or 149% higher than the preindustrial level. “This is not just a chemical formula and figures on a graph. This has massive repercussions on our daily lives and our well-being, on the state of the planet and the future of our children and grandchildren, “Taalas alerted.
The climate” in uncontrolled skid “
Methane, about 60% of atmospheric discharges are of human origin (ruminant breeding, rice growing, discharges …), and nitrogen oxide, including about 40% of emissions in the atmosphere are of origin human (fertilizer and manure), have also reached concentration peaks in 2020. As for radiative forcing (the ability of the land to conserve the energy of the sun or to return it to the space), which has the effect of reheat The climate, it increased by 47% between 1990 and 2020.
Global temperature will continue to increase as long as emissions continue. And, since CO 2 remains for centuries in the atmosphere and even longer in the oceans, the warming already observed will persist for several decades, even if net emissions were reduced to zero quickly , warns WMO.
This report shows that the climate is “in uncontrolled skidding” despite the warnings of the experts, insists Euan Nisbet, researcher at the Royal Holloway of the University of London: “The disaster is getting closer, but we can not prevent it , all that can be done is screaming. “