Although Fumioo Kishida Liberal Democratic Party should win the elections, it could leave a few feathers after a short campaign dominated by the themes of the pandemic and the economy.
Le Monde with AFP
Polling stations opened in Japan, Sunday, October 31, on the occasion of the legislative elections for which some 106 million voters are called upon to separate 1,051 candidates for 465 seats at the Lower House of the Diet.
The new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who dissolved the House of Representatives on October 14, hopes to keep his position. In the previous legislature, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD, Right Nationalist), dominating the Japanese political scene almost without interruption for 66 years, held 276 seats and its ally, the Komeito Party (right center), 29, or 305 seats in total . Their coalition had a solid parliamentary seat, allowing a control of all the levers of power.
But the context has changed a lot compared to the last legislative in 2017. Shinzo Abe, which seemed stainless at the post of Prime Minister, resigned in September 2020 for health reasons. His successor Yoshihide Suga held only one year, victim of plump records because of his management deemed clumsy of the health crisis and his desire to maintain at cost the Tokyo Olympic Games this year.
A seventeen-day campaign
Elected President of the PLD at the end of September thanks to the support of the caciques of the party, then named Prime Minister by Parliament in early October, Mr. Kishida, 64, however, does not enjoy great popularity in public opinion. She gravated around 50% in early October, one of the weakest for a new Japanese leader for twenty years.
At the end of a very brief seventeen campaign dominated by the topics revolving around the pandemic and the economy, Mr. Kishida targets the shortest absolute majority: 233 seats for PLD and Komeito gathered. A way to save the face even in case of a sensitive loss of seats.
“We must show the public that the PLD is resurrected,” Kishida launched after his election at the head of the party. He promised to fight COVID-19 his number one priority, but also to revitalize the economy and reduce growing social inequalities. However, it remained vague on the measures to achieve this.
The PLD has long benefited from a historically low and fragmented opposition. But for these legislative, five opposition parties will cooperate in many constituencies, which could theoretically weaken the PLD.
“Mr. Kishida faces opposite winds due to low popularity and a more coordinated opposition,” says Stefan Angrick, Moody’s Analytics economist.
An eye on the participation
On the other hand, the PLD has great means and remains master in the art of controlling the electoral process, especially in rural areas. “There are personal ties between the families of his candidates and voters, who go back to several generations,” reminds the France-Press agency (AFP), Mr. Cucek, Professor of Asian Studies at the Japanese campus of the Japanese campus Temple University.
Other asset for Mr. Kishida and his party: the number of CVIV-19 infections fell in Japan (about 270 new daily cases on the last seven-day average), after having reached records in August under the ‘Effect of the Delta Variant.
And after a laborious start-up start 2021, the vaccination campaign in the archipelago has become a success: more than 71% of the inhabitants have now received two injections, one of the highest rates among the countries of the OECD.
Electoral participation, particularly low in Japan (53.68% to the legislative of 2017 and 52.66% to those of 2014), will be scrutinized close to Sunday. A high abstention traditionally favors the PLD.