The admissions at the hospital jumped 14% in one week and 12% in critical care. The government spokesman evokes “a light but sensitive recovery”.
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There is an air of already-view. After the relative respite of September, the recovery of the viral traffic of the SARS-COV-2, observable for two weeks in the incidence rate, is confirmed for a few days via an unambiguous indicator: the increase in admissions to the ‘Hospital (+ 14% in one week) and critical care (+ 12%). Impossible for the moment to know what the scope of the rebound that begins since early October, but one thing is certain for Vincent Marshal, Professor of Virology at La Sorbonne: “It will not be a winter without Covid-19”.
How to explain this epidemic recovery while the start of the school year, perceived as a period at risk by epidemiologists, has not provoked a particular rebound in September? First, the non-vaccinated elderly and vulnerable reservoir, the most at risk of developing serious forms, is still important. Some 2.5 million people aged 50 and over are still immunized, according to the data from the Ministry of Health, and particularly 500,000 people over 80, while on October 28, one third of the beds in resuscitation were occupied by people aged 60 to 69.
The elderly who has already received a complete scheme must be considered, but whose protection is controlled over the months. As of October 24, only 64% of people over the age of 65 who do not live as an accommodation for dependent seniors (EHPAD) and eligible for the reminder had passed the step, as well as 63% of EHPAD residents. Finally, entry into the winter season, more favorable to viral traffic, and the relaxation of barrier gestures contribute to the new dynamic. “The current epidemic recovery looks like the winter recovery of last year, the virus becomes almost seasonal, observes Mahmoud Zureik, professor of epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles – Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines. But Vaccination will not be the only remedy. Among the preferred measures that are still not highlighted, the ventilation of closed places is important. “
The new underestimated contamination?
Wednesday, the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, confirmed “a light but sensitive recovery”. “The incidence rate further exceeds 50 per 100,000 inhabitants at the national level and the alert threshold has been crossed in some 40 departments” even if “we start from a weak level,” he precise. If the upward trend is irrefutable, the incidence data has been subject to bail since the end of the repayment of virological tests for everyone on October 15, but also the slightest eagerness of people vaccinated to be made. Tester in case of light symptoms, especially with the arrival of other viruses, such as colds or flu.
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