According to the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate is expected to reach 5.9% in 2021, compared to 6% still hoped for in July.
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Optimism is slightly decreased. In its published forecasts Tuesday, October 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) table on global growth of 5.9% in 2021 (the institution estimated the rise to 6% in July), then 4.9% in 2022. In a few months, the horizon has “darkened” in low-income countries, due to the diffusion of the VVID-19 variant. And disturbances of supply chains make the recovery “more difficult” in advanced economies. Growth forecasts are only reviewed in raw material exporting countries, which benefit from the progress of courses.
The pace of global recovery worries less the IMF than deviations that grow between countries. In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) advanced savings will exceed 0.9% the pre-pandemic level, while it will be 5.5% lower in the group of emerging countries (excluding China). The crisis ended, at least for a few years, at the catching up of emerging countries and pursued low-income countries into stagnation. Since July, they have recorded the highest revision on the decline in growth (- 0.6%), and between 65 million and 75 million of their inhabitants should fall into extreme poverty this year.
This great divergence is primarily explained by double-speed vaccination campaigns: 60% of the inhabitants of rich countries are vaccinated, compared with only 5% in poor countries, which delays their decorfining and recovery. The slowness of vaccination also threatens the global economy, and the IMF calls to accelerate it: “It would save lives (…), would reduce the risk of new variants and would add thousands of billions of dollars to the recovery. economic. “
An ability to mobilize funds that diverges by country
According to the calculations of the institution, 1 billion doses could be given by the rich countries without compromising their immunization objectives, and it would only be sufficient for $ 50 billion (€ 43.3 billion) for Vaccinate 40% of the population of each country by the end of 2021 and 70% by mid-2022. Poor countries will need to spend $ 200 billion to combat the pandemic and $ 250 billion to revive their savings.
The other factor of divergence and inequality, it is precisely the ability to mobilize the funds to support and revive savings. “Many emerging and developing countries faced with more restrictive financial conditions and risks of inflation, cease to support their economies earlier, despite an activity that has not returned to normal,” says Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of the IMF. This year, the institution installed in Washington increased its reserves of $ 650 billion, through a special drawing fee (DTS) the most important of its history. A breath of oxygen that benefits all the member countries of the Fund, in proportion to their quotas.
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