The 2021 edition of the “World Energy Outlook” estimates that solar, wind and electric vehicle development has emerged a new energy market.
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It is presented as the “Bible” of the energy sector, read both by heads of state, the patterns of the oil companies. Large Report published every fall by the International Energy Agency (AEA), the WORLD Energy Outlook (WEO) presents medium and long-term production and consumption scenarios.
The 2021 edition, published Wednesday, October 13 – It precedes the 26th World Climate Conference (COP26), a crucial appointment that will open on October 31 in Glasgow (Scotland ) – Wear a clear message: the rapid development of solar, wind, electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies is highlighting a new energy sector. But at the current rate, these changes are absolutely not sufficient to hope to reach carbon neutrality in 2050.
“Progress in clean energy are still far too slow to lower global emissions to the” net zero “, which emphasizes the need for a clear signal of ambition and action of the Share of governments in Glasgow, “Fatih Birol insists, the IEA Executive Director, attached to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a voice of major importing countries.
Three Scenarios
The WEO 2021 explores three tracks. First, a scenario “zero net net”, which makes it possible to limit the warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century in relation to the pre-industrial era – according to the terms of the Paris Agreement 2015. It follows a very commented report, in May. For the first time with so much emphasis, the IEA stressed the need to cease any investment now in new oil and gas installations. The organization also described a series of 400 milestones for “totally transforming” the energy sector in less than three decades. Since then, civil society organizations have called for this “scenario 1.5 ° C” to be well at the heart of the IEA report.
To achieve this objective, the institution recalls the importance of “pushing” even more carbon electrification of uses, especially permitted by “the doubling” of photovoltaic, the deployment of the wind and the appeal Nuclear, qualified, five months ago, “essential basis for transitions”.
A second scenario of the Weo 2021 suggests what will happen in case of status quo compared to the policies implemented or under development. For the first time, it provides that the demand for fossil fuel slows down to reach a plateau in the 2030s, then decreases slightly by 2050. In the middle of the century, the annual greenhouse gas emissions would be almost equivalent. to today.
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