The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the consumer price index will reach the peak in the fall, and by mid-2022 it will decrease to the level preceding the pandemic. At the same time, the foundation called the risks that can strengthen the world inflationary pressure, reports Reuters.
According to the IMF forecast, in countries with a developed economy, inflation will reach 3.6 percent in the fall of 2021 and will decrease about two percent to the middle of 2022. In countries with a developing market, inflation will decrease approximately four percent in 2022 after a peak of 6.8 percent in the fall of 2021.
According to the IMF estimates, supply failures in certain sectors of the economy and fluctuations in commodities can keep world inflation at a level significantly higher than the basic. “Sharply growing housing prices and a long deficit of industrial resources in countries with developed and developing economies, as well as high food prices and currency depreciation in emerging markets can longer hold the high-level inflation,” the IMF report says.
According to the Fund, the growth of inflation was caused by unsatisfied demand and accumulated savings fueled incentives from states. In addition, the impact was rapidly growing commodity prices, lack of production resources and failed supply chain.
Most countries in the world in 2021 were encountered with rising prices, and in some countries, inflation reached record highs. In September, in Europe, inflation has become the highest since 2008, and in the USA – since 1991. The Danish Bank Saxo Bank in its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 drew attention to the growing inflation and the slowdown in the economy in Russia. The bank believes that the country is in dangerous proximity to the stagnation – the situation in which the economic decline and the depressive state of the economy are combined with inflation.