The demand for oil will inevitably decrease that it will force Russia to abandon life due to natural resources in favor of developing its own high-tech products made. About this in a conversation with “Tape.ru” Economist Alexey Korenev said. He added that conversations about the need to restructure the economy were carried out long ago, but so far the situation remains at the same level.
The Russian Ministry of Finance made it possible to a “catastrophic” decline in world demand for oil in the long term, if Western countries sign an agreement on decarbonization – this is stated in the report on “the main directions of the budget, tax and customs tariff policy for 2022 and on the planned period 2023 and 2024. ” According to the department, in case Western countries agree on the transition to a low carbon economy, the cost of oil will determine the operational costs of its production, which is why the demand for this type of fuel by 2050 may amount to 17-24 percent of 2019, And prices – fall in four to six times, up to $ 25 per barrel.
Nearby Future without Oil
The economist noted that oil should end up to 2050, at least easily mined.
“Easy extracted oil – the one, which is produced by Saudi Arabia. It is difficult – the one is located far from the shore, as in the Arctic Ocean, Mexico Bay. Either oil in the form of bituminous shale sands, where it is extremely high cost. Or it is heavy Fractions: Tatarstan, for example, all stands on the bitumeume, but it is difficult to extract – you need to download hot steam into the wells. There are a lot of oil in the world, but it’s easily removed. And by 2050 it will definitely end, “Korenev concluded.
Interlocutor “Lental.ru” added that long-term forecasts for oil demand should be extremely difficult. However, what gradually will decline – obviously. Unfortunately, at the moment Russia is not ready for this.
“We need to move from life due to the natural rent on production with high value-added, manufacturing production. The Japanese has no oil, no metals, nor forest, but machines are excellent. We will also have to reform our economy if we do not want Stay in the tail of the train. You need to create high-tech production, high-tech, completely rebuilding the industry. While we are not ready for this, everything remains at the level of words, but life will force them to go to the case, “the economist believes.
Korenev noted that this year Russia is lucky – energy prices are at an extremely high level. But even in such positive conditions, the fiscal load increases, the state is trying to replenish the budget not at the expense of petroclars, but with the help of its own citizens and their taxes.