Following the results of 2021, the amount of Russian exports will exceed a total dollars, the specialists of Citi Bank were predicted. Sales volumes were already approaching maxima for many years, and the main commodities continue to rise, says in an analytical note “Record volumes of trade are unlikely to pull the ruble”, with which “Vedomosti”.
Customs shows that exports by the end of July reached $ 187.4 billion, and in July, it was sold out of $ 48.9 billion (annual growth almost twice). Last time, the value launched this amount was recorded in December 2013 (49.6 billion).
Citi analysts believe that the reason lies in the rise in prices for raw materials, primarily oil and gas. The cost of Brent oil at the end of September approached three-year highs, gas prices in Europe beat records, exceeding $ 1100 per thousand cubic meters. The growth in exports this year will continue thanks to the restoration of the global economy and increase energy prices, the director of the Institute of Trade Policy HSE, Alexander Danitsev, believes. However, by the end of the year signs of deceleration may appear: the cost of fuel will be under pressure, if the winter is not anomalously cold.
Despite the fact that high prices for raw materials led to an increase in income (and companies, and budget), serious strengthening of the ruble Citi analysts do not expect. According to them, almost the full potential of strengthening the Russian currency was negated due to the procurement of currency on the budgetary rule. In January-September, the Ministry of Finance made the appropriate transactions in the amount of almost 1.8 trillion rubles.
In the long run, the export of Russian raw materials may be at risk. Thus, the Ministry of Finance of Russia made it possible to the “catastrophic” decline in global oil demand in the future, to which the energy transition can lead in the countries of the world. “The long-term prospects for oil demand are becoming increasingly negative. If the announced intentions of a number of countries on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 (in China – by 2060) will acquire legislative status, and other countries will follow, then the demand for oil will decrease catastrophically,” – Specifies in the report of the department.