Researchers from the UK revealed a set of seven signs, for which you can predict whether the person has infected with coronavirus infection. The article of scientists has been published in PLOS Medicine magazine.
Specialists from the Imperial College of London analyzed the results of about 1.15 million PCR tests made in eight rounds from June 2020 to January 2021. At the same time, they asked what kind of symptoms they were tested for a week before testing.
Based on the scientists obtained for the first seven rounds, scientists have developed a model in which the totality of seven symptoms can be predicted whether the PCR test is positive. It is a loss or change of smell, loss or change of food taste, high temperature, chills, the appearance of persistent cough, loss of appetite and muscle pain.
Testing on the basis of at least one of these symptoms gave a sensitivity of 74 percent, specificity of 64 percent and the diagnostic value of ten percent. Using a set of symptoms allowed to predict and detect new SARS-COV-2 options, in particular, “Alpha” -variant.
According to researchers estimates, its use will allow to test in England from 30 to 40 percent of people with these symptoms, while 70-75 percent of the tests will be positive. Additional expansion of the set, the scientists note, will achieve one hundred percent detection of coronavirus among such people, however, the existing opportunities of the British health care will not be enough for this.