Energy transformation carries a number of risks for the Russian economy. Among them is the fall in export revenue, employment reduction, the problem of monogorodov, the potential loss of leadership in world energy, loss of budget revenues, as well as potential problems in the absence of transformation from energy companies, including their possible bankruptcy. This opinion was expressed by the President, Chairman of the Board of Sberbank Herman Gref on the panel session of the Sberbank “Is Russia ready to global ESG transformation?” In the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum.
“The world is late, irreversible processes have already begun. To avoid them, already in 2021-2030 it is necessary to reduce emissions twice,” he said. According to him, 64 countries (75 percent of world GDP) announced their intention by 2035-2060 to reach carbon neutrality.
“Today, no one argues on the topic of whether to reduce emissions to the result. Scientific discussions are over, a number of countries stated that they will cover seven branches by carbon tax by 2026,” the head of the Sberbank stressed.
For Russia, energy transformation means a fall by 2050 produced by oil and gas condensate by 72 percent, gas – by 52 percent, energy coal – by 90 percent.
Energy exports may fall by $ 179 billion by 2035. Other processing methods will reduce these figures, but it will be necessary to introduce more eco-friendly production, the Gref explained.
The consequences for the budget of the Russian Federation, according to the calculations of the selection, will also be very significant: potential damage to GDP compared to the inertial scenario is 7.7 percent, up to 2035, or 5 trillion rubles. The loss of income of the population – 14 percent, by 2070 – 9 percent Effect on employment in the regions with a tough scenario by 2035 – Krasnoyarsk Territory 15 thousand people, YNAO 21 thousand people, KHMA 41 thousand people. Negative impact will affect the regions with a high share of mining, from KHMA to Perm region.
As they say in the slaughter, it is unrealistic to make an energy switch to 2050, since technology is not yet ready. Huge state investments are needed in the amount of 32 billion dollars a year. Nevertheless, Gref noted, the energy operator became more accessible – the share of renewings in the world’s new facilities is 80 percent. In addition, the market believed in ESG – investments in ESG funds in 2020 increased by 2.3 times.
“We see how global trends are changing in the market. ESG has entered the fore, and have a dramatic effect on economic yield. These changes are inevitable, they already occur. The government has a very deep attitude to this topic, the most serious promise we see with Parties to the President of the country. I think that we must move this problem together, “concluded Gref.