Central Bank of Russia presented a draft of the main directions of monetary policy until 2024. The document also describes three alternative basic scenarios for the development of the country’s economy.
According to the first one, which is called “Pandemic Strengthening”, GDP growth rates will be zero, and in 2023 it will accelerate to 3.5-4.5 percent. Scenario “Global Inflation” implies an increased level of world inflation and interest rates. It will require a tougher monetary policy regulator.
According to the script “Financial Crisis” there will be a significant increase in debt burden in the global economy. The new crisis will be comparable to scale with the crisis of 2008-2009. The US monetary policy tightening can lead to an increase in investors’ concerns, because of this, 2023 will begin with mass sales of assets.
For Russia, this will mean recession – the third from 2015 (followed by restoration in 2024). The basic scenario of the Central Bank assumes that in the current year the average price of oil will be $ 65 per barrel, the GDP growth rate will be 4-4.5 percent, and from the 2022th – stabilizes in the range of 2-3 percent.
The Bank of Russia also raised the inflation forecast from 4.7-5.2 percent to 5.7-6.2 percent for the results of the year. By 2022, the indicator will be at the level of 4-4.5 percent. By 2024, GDP growth is expected for 2-3 percent, and inflation – four percent.
Earlier managing director of the NRA Rating Service Sergey Grishunin called the reasons for the future global economic crisis. He noted that the currently observed high inflation worldwide is the first sign of overheating of the global economy.