Researchers from Germany and Canada showed that Europe in the future expects the increase in droughts, which in turn will be longer and more severe. The article of scientists has been published in the Frontiers magazine in Water.
Scientists from the University of Munich, Ludwig and Maximilian and Oranos divided continent for eight regions with different climates – British Islands, Scandinavia, Central Europe, Alps, Eastern Europe, France, Mediterranean and Iberian Peninsula. The researchers, using the climatic model created by them, calculated the ratio of the predicted level of precipitation in the future (from 2080 to 2099) to the norm – the level of precipitation from 2001 to 2020 – with the so-called scenario of RCP8.5 (maintaining the current level of hydrocarbon emissions).
The analysis carried out by researchers showed a significant increase in the number of droughts. In this case, changes in the frequency of droughts depended on the region. Summer droughts will become more severe, and winter is less frequent. The difference and between seasonal sediments will increase: they will often fall in winter and less – in summer.
The strongest tendency to increase droughts – more than 50 percent – will be in the Alps, France, on the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. Increase droughts in the Alps and in Eastern Europe – by 40 and 20 percent, respectively.