A group of climatologists from the WORLD Weather Attribution initiative group believes that global warming increases the likelihood of decaying new extreme rains that caused deadly sudden floods in Western Europe last month. This is reported in a press release on Phys.org.
Specialists analyzed historical records and applied computer simulation to explore how the temperature affected the amount of precipitation from the end of the XIX century to the present. The results have not yet been tested by independent scientists, but the authors used generally accepted methods to estimate the frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and anomalous heat.
It turned out that in the Big region of Western Europe (from the Netherlands to Switzerland) the amount of precipitation per day increased by 3-19 percent for the period during which global temperatures increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius. For every one extra degree Celsius atmosphere can absorb more than seven percent more water, which causes strong rains. Livni, caused by floods in Germany and Belgium on July 14-15, currently 1.2-9 times more likely than before. Scientists predict that this probability will increase due to the fact that the planet will continue to heat up.