University of Padua in Italy calculated the likelihood of new deadly pandemics, like COVID-19, analyzing global disease outbreaks over the past 400 years. The results of the study are published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
It was found that the chance of a pandemic similar to the consequences of COVID-19 is about two percent any year. This means that the likelihood of a pandemic for a person born in 2000 is currently about 38 percent, and this probability is only grown. That is, a similar pandemic can occur over the next 59 years.
Researchers used new statistical methods for measuring the scale and frequency of outbreaks of diseases for which immediate measures to prevent distribution were carried out. The results of the analysis covering a number of pathogens, including the plague, OSPU, cholere, raw tit and new influenza viruses, have demonstrated significant differences in the rate of pandemics in the past. Scientists also identified patterns that allowed them to describe the likelihood of repeating the events of a similar scale.
In the case of a deadly pandemic in a modern history – Spanish flu, who has taken the lives of more than 30 million people from 1918 to 1920, – the likelihood of a pandemic of a similar scale ranged from 0.3 to 1.9 percent per year within a certain period of time. In other words, a pandemic of this scale can be repeated over the next 400 years. However, the likelihood of outbreaks of new diseases, such as COVID-19, is likely to grow three times in the following several decades.
In addition, the researchers calculated the likelihood of a pandemic capable of destroying all people on earth, and found that it is statistically likely for the next 12 thousand years.
Scientists emphasize that the statistical probability does not imply a 59-year delay of a pandemic similar to COVID-19, or a 300-year delay of the Pandemic of Spanish flu. Such events are equal to any year during the entire period under consideration.