A group of genetics from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria explained the emergence of new COVID-19 options. Research Posted in Scientific Reports magazine.
Scientists have built an epidemiological model describing the dynamics of contamination of people with coronavirus. Thus, experts simulated scenarios under which new COVID-19 options appear or disappear without fixing in the population. According to the results, it turned out that two factors are influenced by the emergence of new strains: the number of vaccinated people and the threshold number of infected people.
“using parameters that are realistically reminiscent of the transmission of SARS-COV-2, we simulate the wave picture of the pandemic and consider the effect of vaccination rate and the effectiveness of nephraphautic measures on the likelihood of the appearance of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that the high vaccination rate reduces the probability of appearance. resistant strain, “- the study says.
However, adherence to restrictions in countries affects the emergence of new options. According to experts, due to the different rates of vaccination, there is still a big risk of infection. And to prevent its distribution, we must wear masks and gloves, comply with the social distance. Scientists have concluded that without the global coordination of actions to combat COVID-19, the world’s sustainable variants of coronavirus can still remain in the world.
Previously, British scientists described a number of possible scenarios for the development of coronavirus mutations and stated that a strain with a mortality rate of 35 percent may appear in the world. According to one version, due to the vaccination campaign, the coronavirus will be resistant to drugs. The mutation may arise on the basis of the South African version of COVID-19 (“beta”), which quietly bypasses the post-associated immunity, and the most infectious “Alpha” (British strain) or “Delta” (Indian strain).