Futures for American oil reached the highest level since October 2018 after OPEC + made a forecast about a more busy situation in the global market, Bloobmberg writes.
The cost of WTI grew by 3 percent from the closure of trading on Friday to a level of 68.31 dollars per barrel. Brent reached $ 70 per barrel – not fixed such prices since 2019.
In the OPEC forecast, it is said that the excess oil accumulated over the pandemic is practically not left, and for the second half of the year, stocks will begin to decline rapidly. It is assumed that the planned increase in oil production in July will be agreed on the upcoming meeting in July.
OPEC + believes that the restoration of the American and European economy will lead to the consumption of additional oil reserves, despite the possible increase in deliveries from Iran in the event of the revival of a nuclear transaction involving the withdrawal of US sanctions. “The growth of demand is sufficiently stable, discipline from OPEC + good, reserves are declining. If the market does not overshadow the Iranian shadow, then prices can reach the level of $ 75-80 to the middle of the third quarter,” said Freidun Fesharaki ).
In relation to Iran, US sanctions currently apply that prohibit oil exports. However, on May 31, there they stated that they can dramatically increase the prey to 6.5 million barrels per day: it is twice the current level. Tehran is sure that it will be able to find buyers for additional supplies.
If Washington will soften the sanctions, Iran can also increase exports, which remains a risk factor for rising prices. The head of the analytical credit rating agency Mikhail Sukhov believes that on average, the cost of oil in 2021 will reach 55-60 dollars per barrel.