Macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting center (DSMAC) called the high risk of the onset of the banking crisis in Russia until April 2022. About this with reference to the organization’s report write “Izvestia”.
MDCs reviewed his previous forecast, then the crisis was expected in November 2021, but due to the stabilization of the indicator of the problem approximation, the term was transferred for several months. The head of the analysis of monetary policy and the banking sector of the Ministry of Defense, Oleg Solntsev explained that so far none of the threats are implemented.
Nevertheless, the main risks are saved. Among them are high unemployment (5.4 percent, by 0.8 percentage points higher than a year ago) and increasing the real ruble rate, which is rather negative consequences with a low currency debt.
Under the system banking crisis in the DSMAKP implies the growth of problem assets in the system above 10 percent, banking panic or forced freezing of customer funds, as well as forced reorganization of each tenth bank (as an option – the capitalization of banks by state or companies in the amount of more than two percent of GDP) .
According to Solnthev, the crisis can remain at the bank level, so the simple person will not notice it. From his point of view, effective ways to save the system from problems would be to postpone the increase in the key rate and conduct a budget consolidation, which would stimulate economic growth.
The Central Bank did not agree with the forecast of the upcoming problems in the sector, emphasizing that there is no reason to talk about high risks. The regulator reminded that in the first quarter, financial institutions showed a good result, and to cover potential risks they have a significant stock of capital, in the amount of above ten percent of the portfolio.
On the eve, on May 27, the Central Bank reported that the slaughter of Russians (the ratio of payments for loans to the general income of Russians) in the first quarter increased to a historic maximum of 11.9 percent.