Foundation “Liberal Mission” predicted Russia to the fate of Venezuela, subject to the preservation of the current course on economic and social stability. The report of the Fund has been published on its website.
The authors analyzed the period from 2009 to 2019 and compared it with the “era of stagnation” of 1976-84. According to them, the current development rates below are one percent per year, an average of 1.6 percent.
The result of such a state of affairs is to reduce the share of the domestic economy in the world, as well as the growth of the backlog from developed and many developing countries. Thus, on the GDP per capita in the parity of purchasing power, Russia is already lagging behind Romania and reduces the advantage over Kazakhstan.
Also, the authors indicate that the government does not search for real outputs from the situation, does not develop strategy and possible correction measures. The current course is characterized as stability. Under this definition, the authors imply “a model of redistribution of resource rent and income from economic activity that corresponds to the interests of the political elite, a number of sectors of Russian business and certain groups.”
“Instead of growth, priority is stability, care from any economic risks that may have negative social consequences, and the highest priority has minimization of macroeconomic risks,” the report says.
also indicates that the deterioration of the situation can occur in the next 10-15 years, when the fall in oil and gas revenues by 25 percent, reduction of labor and unforeseen risks (“black swans”) such as negative impact of sanctions can lead to a full crisis.
The example of Venezuela is given, over the past 50 years, he has twice survived the structural crisis due to volatility (instability) of oil prices.