The main forecast for oil production in Russia in the period up to 2035 is its inevitable decline, so that the level of 2019 in 561 million tons will never be able to return. This is stated in the draft general scheme of the oil industry, prepared by the Ministry of Energy, who got acquainted with Kommersant.
In such a scenario, local mining peak will have to 2029 (554 million tons), and then follow a permanent decline to 471 million in 2035. The authors of the project expect that the dynamics will provide a gradual yield of deposits with current NPI benefits to the maximum level of production and depletion of other deposits.
Despite the difference in detail, reducing the extraction and income from the sale of energy resources after 2027-2029 suggests all development options. In some peak comes before. The difference in scenarios is only what stocks are taken into account.
A favorable forecast suggests that by 2030 Russia will produce 641 million tons of oil per year, and in 2035th – 551 million. In moderately favorable, it is said about 596 million tons in 2028 and 493 million in 2035th. But these scenarios require revision of stocks towards a sharp increase, the main is based on inventory 2019-2020. Profitable depending on the macroeconomic scenario, then 36-64 percent of the reserved oil reserves in Russia were recognized.
Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch reminds that the fall in oil production in Russia has been waiting since 2010, but so far the country has not entered into a deal with OPEC, this did not happen. In his opinion, Moscow can continue to increase the level of production, but only by reducing the tax burden, that is, to receive a smaller income.
Earlier, RIA Novosti, with reference to the same document, noted that the Coronavirus pandemic is considered in the Ministry of Energy, one of the factors contributing to the accelerated occurrence of the peak of global oil production. In connection with this, the maximum can come to the 2020s.